September 13, 2021

The 2021 Norwegian Parliamentary Election

This page offered daily updated predictions for the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election. It has now been archived, but remains publicly available.

Latest poll: Kantar (N=696), reported 09/11

Who will win a parliamentary majority?

The plot shows the probability that a party constellation would get a majority if an election had been held during a given week.

The conservative block currently has a less than 5% probability of winning a parliamentary majority at the next election. The equivalent probability for a coalition consisting of the Labor Party (Ap) and the Centre Party (Sp) is also less than 5%. Adding the Socialist Left Party (SV) to the coalition increases the probability to 85.3%. Removing the Centre Party from the coalition and adding the Green Party (MDG) and the Red Party (R) yields a probability of less than 5%.

Who will get above the 4% threshold?

The plot shows the probability that a party would get above the 4% threshold if an election had been held during a given week.

The Liberal Party (V) currently has a 90.7% probability of getting more than 4% of the national vote. The equivalent probability for the Red Party (R) is 89.5%. For the Green Party (MDG) it is 88.6%, and for the Christian Democratic Party (KrF) 49.5%.

How many seats will each party get?

The plot shows weekly levels of support in the form of predicted parliamentary seats.

The Labor Party (Ap) is predicted to be the largest party in parliament, with 43 to 50 seats, ahead of the Conservative Party (H), at 30 to 38 seats. The Centre Party (Sp) may gain the most seats, adding 2 to 11 compared to the last election. The Conservative Party (H) may lose the most, obtaining 7 to 15 fewer seats.

How is party support geographically distributed?

The map shows the total predicted vote share for the conservative block at the next election. Move the marker over a district for details (on touch screens: tap). Click and drag to zoom. Double-click to return to the original position (on touch screens: tap with two fingers).

Vest-Agder may prove to be the most Right-leaning district in Norway, with a 45.8 to 52.6% predicted vote share for the conservative block at the election. Nord-Trøndelag could prove the most Left-leaning, with a 22.3 to 26% predicted vote share for the conservative block.

How do the polls look?

The reported date for each poll is the midpoint between the start and end of the data collection.

In addition to national polls, the plot shows the estimated trends of support in the population. Because the model corrects for differences between polls and actual results in previous elections, some trends are adjusted slightly up or down relative to the moving average of the polls.

To keep track of new polls, this project relies on Poll of polls and the project might not have been feasible without their effort to systematize the polls. The idea behind this project is to complement their contribution by going further in terms of modeling party support and predicting election results.

About this website

Further information about this site can be found here.