September 13, 2021

The 2021 Norwegian Parliamentary Election

This page estimates party support over time based on opinion polls. The page is updated daily and reports estimates for each week from the last election until the next.

Latest poll: Kantar (N=696), reported 09/11

Who will win a parliamentary majority?

The plot shows the probability that a party constellation would get a majority if an election had been held during a given week.

The conservative block currently has a less than 5% probability of winning a parliamentary majority at the next election. The equivalent probability for a coalition consisting of the Labor Party (Ap) and the Centre Party (Sp) is also less than 5%. Adding the Socialist Left Party (SV) to the coalition increases the probability to 85.3%. Removing the Centre Party from the coalition and adding the Green Party (MDG) and the Red Party (R) yields a probability of less than 5%.

Who will get above the 4% threshold?

The plot shows the probability that a party would get above the 4% threshold if an election had been held during a given week.

The Liberal Party (V) currently has a 90.7% probability of getting more than 4% of the national vote. The equivalent probability for the Red Party (R) is 89.5%. For the Green Party (MDG) it is 88.6%, and for the Christian Democratic Party (KrF) 49.5%.

How many seats will each party get?

The plot shows weekly levels of support in the form of predicted parliamentary seats.

The Labor Party (Ap) is predicted to be the largest party in parliament, with 43 to 50 seats, ahead of the Conservative Party (H), at 30 to 38 seats. The Centre Party (Sp) may gain the most seats, adding 2 to 11 compared to the last election. The Conservative Party (H) may lose the most, obtaining 7 to 15 fewer seats.

How is party support geographically distributed?

The map shows the total predicted vote share for the conservative block at the next election. Move the marker over a district for details (on touch screens: tap). Click and drag to zoom. Double-click to return to the original position (on touch screens: tap with two fingers).

Vest-Agder may prove to be the most Right-leaning district in Norway, with a 45.8 to 52.6% predicted vote share for the conservative block at the election. Nord-Trøndelag could prove the most Left-leaning, with a 22.3 to 26% predicted vote share for the conservative block.

How do the polls look?

The reported date for each poll is the midpoint between the start and end of the data collection.

In addition to national polls, the plot shows the estimated trends of support in the population. Because the model corrects for differences between polls and actual results in previous elections, some trends are adjusted slightly up or down relative to the moving average of the polls.

How does the model work?

The results reported above are based on 15,000 sets of simulated values from a Bayesian model. To get a satisfactory grip on the uncertainty of the results, all parameters are estimated simultaneously via simulation: No point estimates are made until the joint probability distribution of all the parameters has been estimated.

The model accounts for both random variation and polling bias, although the latter is fairly limited. Such bias has two likely explanations: (1) The voters of some parties are more prone to answer surveys (and the polling companies are not fully able to correct these differences through weighting), and (2) the voters of some parties have a lower turnout rate.

The current version of the model relies only on national polls because this proves to give the most accurate results. However, the model uses prior election results to estimate how party support is typically distributed among districts. This makes it possible to use the national trends to predict results at the district level.

The predictions for the next election are based on five elements: (1) Vote shares at the last election, (2) the degree of change in each party’s vote share from one election to the next, (3) current party support, (4) the degree of change in each party’s support from one week to the next, and (5) the degree of covariation in how support for each possible pair of parties evolves on a weekly basis.

To keep track of new polls, this project relies on Poll of polls and the project might not have been feasible without their effort to systematize the polls. The idea behind this project is to complement their contribution by going further in terms of modeling party support and predicting election results.

Downloading and using the data

To facilitate further use of the content on this page, the .csv files listed below are updated daily. These files can be used freely, provided appropriate attribution is given: “Jørgen Bølstad / Estimite.com”. The files contain results for the current week, as well as predictions for the election:

About this website

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